What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Accrington and 1.3 from Newport County, so Accrington come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.9 goals between the two (xG 1.7-1.3), landing about 53% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.79, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Accrington have won one of their last five.
✓Newport County have not won any of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
27 Jan 2026Newport County 1 - 4 Accrington
11 Oct 2025Accrington 0 - 1 Newport County
11 Mar 2025Accrington 5 - 0 Newport County
24 Aug 2024Newport County 3 - 1 Accrington
9 Apr 2024Newport County 1 - 3 Accrington
