What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from Barnet and 1.1 from Cheltenham, so Barnet come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Barnet come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Barnet to win. Barnet are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-1.1), and we make them about 65% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Cheltenham to spoil this. We make it about 65% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
