How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Under 3.5 goals 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Port Vale and 1.1 from Crewe, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Crewe come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.4 goals in total (xG 1.3-1.1), keeping it under more often than not (about 77%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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