What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Chesterfield and 1.4 from York, so Chesterfield come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.2 goals between the two (xG 1.8-1.4), landing about 56% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.69, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Chesterfield have won two of their last five.
✓York have won two of their last five.
✓Three of the last four meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last four meetings.
Recent meetings
29 Mar 2024York 2 - 1 Chesterfield
24 Oct 2023Chesterfield 4 - 0 York
7 Apr 2023Chesterfield 1 - 3 York
25 Oct 2022York 1 - 1 Chesterfield
