What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Exeter and 0.8 from Tranmere, so Exeter come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Tranmere to score 1 or fewer. This is about Tranmere's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.8 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 75%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
