How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Under 3.5 goals 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Walsall and 0.9 from Port Vale, so Walsall come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Walsall come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.1 goals in total (xG 1.2-0.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 73%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Walsall have won three of the last four meetings.
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