How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Shrewsbury to score 1 or fewer 80%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Grimsby and 0.8 from Shrewsbury, so Grimsby come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Grimsby come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Shrewsbury to score 1 or fewer. This is about Shrewsbury's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.8 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 80%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Grimsby have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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