What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Newport County and 1.4 from Fleetwood Town, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Newport County come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.7 goals (xG 1.3-1.4), and three is enough to land it, landing about 50% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 48 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.89, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Newport County have won one of their last five.
✓Fleetwood Town are unbeaten in their last five — two wins and three draws.
✓Four of the last four meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in no of the last four meetings.
Recent meetings
28 Feb 2026Fleetwood Town 0 - 0 Newport County
13 Dec 2025Newport County 0 - 2 Fleetwood Town
26 Apr 2025Fleetwood Town 2 - 0 Newport County
26 Oct 2024Newport County 0 - 0 Fleetwood Town
