How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Under 3.5 goals 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Northampton and 0.9 from Newport County, so Northampton come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Northampton come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.2 goals in total (xG 1.3-0.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 74%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Northampton have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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