What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Northampton and 0.9 from Newport County, so Northampton come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.1 goals in total (xG 1.3-0.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 57%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.78, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell. We make it about 57% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
