How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 1.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Port Vale and 1.0 from Exeter, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Port Vale come into this on two straight defeats. Exeter come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.0 goals in total (xG 1.0-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 75%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.28, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Port Vale have won three of the last five meetings.
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