How it turned out
We projected about 1.8 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Shrewsbury to score 1 or fewer 73%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Shrewsbury and 1.0 from Northampton, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Shrewsbury come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Shrewsbury to score 1 or fewer. This is about Shrewsbury's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.8 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 73%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Shrewsbury have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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