How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Walsall to win 53%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Walsall and 1.0 from Rochdale, so Walsall come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Walsall come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Walsall to win. Walsall are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.0), and we make them about 54% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Rochdale have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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