York v Swindon: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 4. We made Over 2.5 goals 58%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.9 goals from York and 1.5 from Swindon, so York come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Swindon come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.4 goals between the two (xG 1.8-1.5), landing about 61% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.

We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.