How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 3.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Atl. San Luis and 1.5 from Guadalajara Chivas, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.8 goals (xG 1.3-1.5) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 72%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.49, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Guadalajara Chivas have won three of the last five meetings.
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