How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Juarez and 1.6 from Pachuca, so Pachuca come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Juarez come into this on five straight defeats. Pachuca come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.8 goals (xG 1.2-1.6) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 73%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Pachuca have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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