How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Cruz Azul to win 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Cruz Azul host Santos Laguna at home in a Liga MX clash on 6 September. Cruz Azul sit sixth out of eighteen with twelve points from seven games and a +1 goal difference. They are just one point behind Atlas in fifth place and two points ahead of Querétaro in seventh. Santos Laguna are down at seventeenth, with only one point from the same number of matches and a –8 goal difference. They sit five points behind Atlético de San Luis in sixteenth and one point ahead of FC Juárez in eighteenth. Both sides will be looking to improve their positions, but the gap in the table makes this a must-win for the visitors.
Cruz Azul have been inconsistent in their last eight outings, winning four, drawing one and losing three. Their most recent result was a 3-1 win away at Necaxa. Before that they fell 2-0 at home to Atlas, then lost 2-1 away to Club Tijuana and 3-2 at home to Atlante. They did manage a 2-1 home victory over Puebla and a 3-2 away win at Atlético San Luis. In those eight games they have scored thirteen and let in twelve. Only one clean sheet was kept and they failed to score in two matches. Six of the games featured three or more goals and both sides found the net in six of them.
Santos Laguna have struggled badly, recording just one win, one draw and six defeats in their last eight matches. Their latest game was a goalless draw at home against Tigres UANL. Prior to that they lost 3-2 away to Puebla, 1-0 at home to Guadalajara Chivas, 3-0 away to Club America, 1-0 at home to Atlas and 3-2 away to Monterrey. They have scored seven and conceded thirteen in this run. They kept two clean sheets but failed to score in five games. All four of their recent road trips have ended in defeat.
When the two clubs meet, Cruz Azul have the clear edge. In the last five meetings Cruz Azul have won four times while Santos Laguna have only one win and no draws. Those games have averaged 2.8 goals. The most recent encounter on 4 March saw Cruz Azul win 2-1 away. Given the recent form and the head-to-head record, we expect another open game with chances at both ends, but the balance should stay with the home side.
We pick Cruz Azul to win. Our own reading puts their chance of victory at about 75 percent, and the price of 1.40 is longer than we think the game is worth. The numbers suggest Cruz Azul will score around 2.6 goals compared with less than one for Santos Laguna, so a win looks the cleaner play. For this to go wrong, Santos Laguna would need to find a rare scoring touch and keep a clean sheet, something they have only done twice in their last eight games. If that happens, the result could be a surprise, but the odds favor the home side.
Recent results
Cruz Azul have won four of the last five meetings.
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