What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Atlas and 1.1 from Atlante, so Atlas come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Atlas come into this on three straight wins. Atlante come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.3 goals in total (xG 1.3-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 54%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. We only make this about 55%, so it's far from a lock.
