How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Atlante or Draw 68%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Atlante host Atl. San Luis at home on 24 October in a Liga MX clash that could move the table a little. Atlante sit 15th of 18 with 14 points after 13 games and a –5 goal difference. One place above them is Tigres, level on points, while Pachuca sit just below with 13. Atl. San Luis are a bit higher, 12th with 16 points and a –4 goal difference. Pumas sit just above them on the same points, and Puebla are level on points just behind. Both clubs have played three days ago, so fatigue may be a factor, but a win for Atlante would lift them three places and give them a cushion over the relegation zone, while San Luis would try to keep their push for a mid-table finish alive.
Atlante’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight games they have won two, drawn two and lost four. The most recent results are a 1-0 win away at Juárez, a 2-1 home loss to UNAM Pumas, a 2-0 away defeat to Querétaro, another 2-0 loss away to Querétaro, a 4-2 home victory over Monterrey and a 1-1 draw away at Puebla. In those eight matches they have scored eight goals and let in 13. They kept only one clean sheet and failed to find the net in three games. Three of the matches produced three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them. At home in the last three fixtures they have one win and two defeats.
San Luis have been far more consistent. Over their last eight games they have won six, drawn one and lost one. Their recent run includes a 2-1 home win over Querétaro, a 1-1 draw away at Toluca, a 1-0 away win at Magallanes, another 1-0 win away at Puerto Montt, a 2-1 home loss to Santos Laguna and a 2-0 home victory over Unión Española. They are unbeaten in their last four matches and have not been beaten on the road in five outings, winning four and drawing one. In this stretch they have scored 12 goals while conceding six and have kept four clean sheets. Three of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them.
The two sides have met only twice before. Atlante have never won, San Luis have one win and one draw. Those games averaged 2.5 goals. The most recent encounter was a 0-1 win for San Luis at Atlante in April 2013. Given the similar goal expectations – Atlante 1.4 and San Luis 1.3 – we can expect a tight contest with a chance of both sides scoring. The recent form suggests San Luis may have the edge, but Atlante’s home advantage and the narrow gap in the table could keep it close.
We back Atlante or a draw at 1.34. The price is shorter than we think the game will be, which gives us a safety net. Our chance that this result happens is about 68 %. For the pick to fail, Atlante would need to lose outright, which would require San Luis to score at least once while keeping a clean sheet. If the game opens up and both sides find the net twice, the draw could still rescue us, but a loss for Atlante would be the only way the selection does not work.
Recent results
Atl. San Luis have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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