How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made UNAM Pumas to score 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
UNAM Pumas host Tigres UANL at home on 25 October in a Liga MX clash that could tighten the lower half of the table. The Pumas sit 12th of 18 with 16 points after 13 games and a goal difference of minus 3. One spot above them, Tijuana are a point ahead, while Puebla sit just behind. Tigres are a little lower, 14th with 14 points and a minus 4 goal difference. They are two places above Tigres, Puebla, and two places below them, Atlante, are level on points. Both clubs are fighting to climb out of the relegation zone, so a win or even a draw could be important for their survival hopes.
The Pumas have not been in good form over their last eight matches, winning only once, drawing three times and losing four. Their most recent result was a 2-0 defeat away to Santos Laguna. Before that they beat Atlante 2-1 away, then drew a high-scoring 3-3 game with Cruz Azul at home. Two home losses followed, 3-2 to Atlético de San Luis on both occasions, and a 1-1 draw away at Atlas. In those eight games they have scored 11 goals but let in 17, failing to find the net in two matches. Five of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in six of them.
Tigres’ last eight outings have been slightly better, with two wins, four draws and two defeats. Their latest match was a 2-0 loss at home to Club Leon. Prior to that they drew 1-1 away to Guadalajara Chivas twice, then beat Toluca 3-2 at home and secured a 1-0 home win over Puebla. Their most recent defeat before the Leon game was a 2-0 loss away to Juárez. Tigres have gone three games without a win and, on the road in their last four matches, they have not won, drawing three and losing one. In the eight-game run they have scored seven and conceded nine, keeping two clean sheets while failing to score in three games. Only one of those matches produced three or more goals, and both sides scored in four.
The two clubs have met five times recently. The Pumas have won once, Tigres twice and two games have ended in draws. Those meetings have produced an average of 2.8 goals per game. The most recent encounter was on 15 January when Tigres lost 0-1 at home to the Pumas. Given the low scoring trend in their recent meetings and the fact that both sides have struggled to find the net, we expect a modestly open game with a few chances for each side.
Our pick is UNAM Pumas to score. The numbers give the Pumas a 78 % chance of finding the net, and the price of 1.29 matches our view of the game. If the Pumas manage to break the deadlock, the bet wins, regardless of the final result. The pick could go wrong if both defenses tighten and the match ends without any goals from the home side, which would be a surprise given the Pumas’ recent scoring record. We think the price is fair and the chance of success is high.
Recent results
Tigres UANL have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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