How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Puebla to score 1 or fewer 77%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Atlas and 1.0 from Puebla, so Atlas come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Puebla to score 1 or fewer. This is about Puebla's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 77%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Atlas have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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