How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 54%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Club Leon and 1.8 from Toluca, so Toluca come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Toluca come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.1 goals between the two (xG 1.3-1.8), landing about 56% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Toluca have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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