Atlante v Pachuca: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Under 3.5 goals 74%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Atlante host Pachuca at home on 12 September in a Liga MX clash that could move both clubs a step up the table. Atlante sit 14th of 18 with seven points from eight games and a -5 goal difference, just one point above Necaxa and one point clear of Tigres. Pachuca are ninth with eleven points, a +5 goal difference, a point ahead of Cruz Azul and level with Pumas. Both sides are looking to improve their positions, but the stakes are modest – a win would give a small lift, while a loss could see them slip further down.

Atlante’s recent form has been a series of draws and a lone win. In their last eight outings they drew 1-1 with Atlas away, then 1-1 with Club León at home, lost 2-0 to Tigres away, held Toluca 0-0 at home, beat Cruz Azul 3-2 away and drew 1-1 with Club América at home. That gives them one win, four draws and three defeats. Their last two matches were both 1-1 draws, and they have not won at home in their last three games, although they have kept one clean sheet and have failed to score in two matches. Across the eight games they have scored nine and let in fourteen.

Pachuca arrive on the back of two consecutive 2-0 victories over Juárez away, and they have been stronger on the road lately. In their last eight games they have three wins, two draws and three losses. Before the Juárez wins they drew 1-1 with Guadalajara at home, drew 1-1 with Atl. San Luis away, lost 3-2 to Puebla at home and fell 1-0 to Club León away. Their recent road form is three wins, one draw and one loss in the last five trips. They have scored twelve and conceded eight in the eight-game run, keeping three clean sheets and being shut out once.

When the two clubs have met before the games have been tight. In four meetings Atlante have won once, Pachuca once and the other two ended in draws. The average total of those matches is just 1.2 goals. The most recent encounter was a 1-0 win for Atlante in February 2014. Given the low scoring history and the fact that both teams have been involved in many low-scoring draws, we expect another cagey affair with few clear chances.

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals. The price of 1.39 matches our view of the game. We think the total will stay below three and a half goals about 74 % of the time. For the pick to fail, both sides would need to open the scoring early and keep pressing, producing at least four goals. As long as the match stays tight and the chances are limited, the under should hold.