How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Club Tijuana to win 50%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Club Tijuana host Queretaro in a Liga MX clash on 12 September 2026. Tijuana sit fifth out of eighteen with thirteen points from seven games and a +2 goal difference. Queretaro are just one place above them, level on points, while Puebla sit one spot below. Both teams are close on the table, so the three points could move the home side up or keep the visitors in the chase. The numbers we have suggest Tijuana are the stronger side, with an expected 1.6 goals to Queretaro’s 1.0, and the price of 2.05 sits near our own reading of the match.
Tijuana have been in good form over their last eight outings, winning five, drawing two and losing only once. Their most recent result was a 2-0 victory over UNAM Pumas at home. Before that they fell 5-2 to Guadalajara Chivas away, then beat Cruz Azul 2-1 at home, held Atl. San Luis 0-0 away, edged Club Leon 1-0 at home and dispatched Tigres UANL 3-1 at home. In those eight games they have scored thirteen and let in eight, kept four clean sheets and failed to find the net twice. All five of their home matches in the run have been wins, showing they are hard to beat on their own turf.
Queretaro’s last eight games give them a solid record of four wins, two draws and two defeats. Their latest outing was a 3-1 away win over Atlas. Prior to that they lost 2-1 at home to Toluca, drew 0-0 away at UNAM Pumas, beat Tigres UANL 3-2 at home, overcame Pachuca 2-1 away and were beaten 1-0 by Club America at home. Over the eight games they have scored twelve and conceded nine, kept one clean sheet and have been shut out twice. On the road they are especially strong, with three wins and a draw in their last four away fixtures.
When the two clubs meet, Tijuana have the clear edge. In the last five meetings they have won four times, drawn once and never lost. Those games have produced an average of 2.4 goals. The most recent encounter on 15 January 2026 ended 2-1 to Tijuana. Given the recent form and the head-to-head record, we expect another relatively open game with both sides likely to find the net, but Tijuana should have the slight advantage.
Our pick is a Tijuana win. We see them as about a 51 percent chance to come out on top, and the price of 2.05 matches that view. The home side’s unbeaten run at home and their better scoring record give them the edge. For the pick to go wrong, Queretaro would need to break their recent away dominance and keep a clean sheet, something they have only done once in the last eight games. If they manage to score early and shut out Tijuana, the result could flip, but the balance of evidence points to a home win.
Recent results
Club Tijuana have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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