How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 1.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.6 goals from Cruz Azul and 0.8 from Santos Laguna, so Cruz Azul come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.5 goals (xG 2.6-0.9), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 85%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 83 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Cruz Azul have won four of the last five meetings.
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