How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Queretaro to score 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Queretaro host Cruz Azul at their home ground in a Liga MX clash that could shape the top of the table. Cruz Azul sit second out of eighteen with 26 points from fourteen games and a +9 goal difference. They are just one point behind América and level with Chivas, so every point matters. Queretaro are a mid-table side that have won four, drawn one and lost three of their last eight matches. The game offers Cruz Azul a chance to keep pressure on the leaders, while Queretaro will be looking to climb back into the chase.
Queretaro’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight outings they lost 2-1 away to Atl. San Luis and suffered a 5-0 defeat away at Santos Laguna. Before that they beat Atlante 2-0 at home, then travelled to beat Chivas 2-0. A 1-1 draw with León at home followed, and they secured a 1-0 win away at Tijuana. That run gave them eleven goals scored and eleven conceded, three clean sheets and one game without scoring. Their last three home games show a win, a draw and a loss, so the venue does not guarantee anything.
Cruz Azul arrive on the back of two straight victories. They edged Pachuca 2-1 away and then ran out 5-0 winners at home against Juárez. Earlier they had two high-scoring draws, 3-3 with UNAM Pumas away and 3-3 with Toluca at home, before losing 1-0 to Monterrey away and 2-0 to Inter Miami away. In eight games they have found the net eighteen times while conceding thirteen, keeping two clean sheets and being shut out twice. Their most recent match was a 2-1 win at Pachuca, a result that gave them confidence but also a short four-day turnaround before travelling to Queretaro.
The two clubs have met five times in recent seasons. Cruz Azul have the edge with three wins and two draws, while Queretaro have not won any of those meetings. The games have averaged 2.6 goals and both sides have scored in four of the five encounters. The latest meeting ended in a 1-1 draw on 22 April, a result that suggests both teams are capable of finding the net but also of keeping things tight. Given the recent form and the history, we can expect a game with a few goals and chances for both sides.
We pick Queretaro to score. Our own view is that the chance Queretaro find the net is high – about 69 out of 100 – and we feel the price of 1.33 matches that view. The price sits close to our reading of the game, and we estimate a 75 out of 100 chance that Queretaro will get at least one goal. For this to fail, Queretaro would need to be shut out, which would require a very solid defensive display from Cruz Azul and a lack of quality chances for the home side. If the game follows the recent pattern of both teams scoring, the bet should be safe.
Recent results
Cruz Azul have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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