How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Club America and 1.2 from Club Tijuana, so Club America come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Club Tijuana to score 1 or fewer. This is about Club Tijuana's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.1 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 72%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Club America have won one of the last five meetings, with four drawn.
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