How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Guadalajara Chivas to win 58%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Guadalajara Chivas and 0.8 from Queretaro, so Guadalajara Chivas come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Guadalajara Chivas to win. Guadalajara Chivas are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.8), and we make them about 60% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Guadalajara Chivas have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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