What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Cruz Azul and 1.4 from Toluca, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Cruz Azul come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.9 goals between the two (xG 1.5-1.4), landing about 56% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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