What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Lens and 1.3 from Lyon, so Lens come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.7-1.3), and we make both teams to score about 61%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.52, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Lens have won two of their last five.
✓Lyon are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in one of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
17 May 2026Lyon 0 - 4 Lens
16 Aug 2025Lens 0 - 1 Lyon
4 May 2025Lyon 1 - 2 Lens
15 Sept 2024Lens 0 - 0 Lyon
3 Mar 2024Lyon 0 - 3 Lens
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