How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Lille to win 62%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Lille and 0.8 from Le Havre, so Lille come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Lille to win. Lille are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.8), and we make them about 64% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Lille have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
