Ligue 1Sat 10 Oct · 18:45 UTC

Monaco v Toulouse prediction

MonacoLWWWD

ToulouseDLDLD

What to expect

We expect about 1.9 goals from Monaco and 1.1 from Toulouse, so Monaco come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Monaco to win. Monaco are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.1), and we make them about 57% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.87, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.

What the numbers say

✓Monaco have won three of their last five.

✓Toulouse have not won any of their last five.

✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.

✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.

Recent meetings

25 Apr 2026Toulouse 2 - 2 Monaco

25 Oct 2025Monaco 1 - 0 Toulouse

7 Mar 2025Toulouse 1 - 1 Monaco

7 Dec 2024Monaco 2 - 0 Toulouse

18 Feb 2024Monaco 1 - 2 Toulouse

Monaco have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.

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