How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 59%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Monaco and 1.2 from Toulouse, so Monaco come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.8-1.2), and we make both teams to score about 59%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.65, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Monaco have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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