Paris SG v Le Mans: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.9 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Paris SG to win 76%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.8 goals from Paris SG and 1.1 from Le Mans, so Paris SG come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.9 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Paris SG come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Paris SG to win. Paris SG are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.8-1.1), and we make them about 78% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.11, which works out at about 90 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.