How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Lyon to win 59%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Lyon and 1.2 from Nice, so Lyon come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Nice come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Lyon to win. Lyon are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-1.2), and we make them about 61% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.86, which works out at about 54 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Lyon have won four of the last five meetings.
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