How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Dijon to score 1 or fewer 74%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Annecy host Dijon in Ligue 2 on 18 September 2026. Annecy sit a few places above the relegation zone while Dijon are 13th of 18, six points from six games and with a -1 goal difference. Grenoble sit one spot above Dijon with a single point advantage and Boulogne sit just below, also one point away. Both clubs are fighting for safety, so a win or a draw could move either side a place up the table. The numbers we have show Annecy as the stronger side, with a higher chance of scoring and a higher expected goal tally.
Annecy have played eight games in their recent run, winning four, drawing one and losing three. Their most recent results were a 2-1 loss away at Guingamp, a 2-1 away win over Grenoble, a 1-1 home draw with Metz, a 3-1 away loss to Reims, a 2-0 home win over Rodez and a 1-0 away win at Pau FC. In those eight matches they have scored 11 goals and let in 10, keeping two clean sheets. Five of the games featured three or more goals and both sides found the net in six of them. At home in their last three matches they have one win, one draw and one loss.
Dijon’s last eight outings have been less rewarding. They have one win, four draws and three defeats. Their latest results are a 3-2 home win over Laval, a 1-1 away draw with Boulogne, a 3-2 home loss to St Etienne, a 1-1 away draw with Clermont, a 1-0 home loss to Pau FC and a 1-1 away draw with Montpellier. In those eight games Dijon have scored nine and conceded eleven, and they have failed to score in two matches. On the road they have not won in their last four trips, drawing three and losing one. Their most recent game was a 1-1 draw away at Montpellier, a match where they managed only a single goal.
The two clubs have met three times before. Annecy have one win, Dijon have none and there is one draw. The average of those meetings is two goals per game. The most recent encounter ended 1-1 on 6 May 2023. Given the recent scores and the fact that both sides have been involved in games with both teams scoring, we expect another low-scoring affair with each side likely to find the net at most once.
Our pick is Dijon to score one or fewer goals. The price of 1.40 matches our view of the game. We think Dijon will struggle to find more than a single goal, as they have only scored nine in eight recent games and have been shut out twice. The chance of this happening is about 74 out of 100, which makes the price look good to us. For the pick to fail, Dijon would need to score twice, which would require a more open performance than their recent form suggests.
Recent results
Annecy have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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