How it turned out
The game finished with 4 goals. Both teams scored. We made Rodez to win 58%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Our pick: Rodez to win. Rodez are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-0.9), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.94, which works out at about 52 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Laval only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 58%.
