What to expect
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.6 goals in total (xG 1.2-1.4), keeping it under more often than not (about 55%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.78, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓St Etienne have won two of their last five.
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell. We make it about 55% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
