What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from F91 Dudelange and 1.3 from UN Käerjeng 97, so F91 Dudelange come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: F91 Dudelange to win. F91 Dudelange are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-1.3), and we make them about 52% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.70, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓F91 Dudelange have won two of their last five.
✓UN Käerjeng 97 have won two of their last three.
