How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 3. We made FC Résidence Walferdange to win 49%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Swift Hesperange and 1.8 from FC Résidence Walferdange, so FC Résidence Walferdange come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FC Résidence Walferdange to win. FC Résidence Walferdange shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.8), and we make them about 51% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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