What to expect
We expect about 2.0 goals from Racing FC Union Luxembourg and 1.1 from FC Victoria Rosport, so Racing FC Union Luxembourg come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Racing FC Union Luxembourg to win. Racing FC Union Luxembourg are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.1), and we make them about 64% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn FC Victoria Rosport a draw or better. We make it about 64% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.