What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from US Mondorf les Bains and 1.3 from FC Progrès Niederkorn, so US Mondorf les Bains come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
US Mondorf les Bains come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: US Mondorf les Bains (Draw No Bet). US Mondorf les Bains are favoured here (xG 1.6-1.3), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a US Mondorf les Bains defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright FC Progrès Niederkorn win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. The price is shorter than our own read of about 67%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.