How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made US Mondorf les Bains (Draw No Bet) 62%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from US Mondorf les Bains and 1.3 from FC Progrès Niederkorn, so US Mondorf les Bains come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: US Mondorf les Bains (Draw No Bet). US Mondorf les Bains are favoured here (xG 1.6-1.3), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a US Mondorf les Bains defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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