How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 6. We made UN Käerjeng 97 to win 44%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from UN Käerjeng 97 and 1.6 from Swift Hesperange, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: UN Käerjeng 97 to win. UN Käerjeng 97 are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.6), and we make them about 45% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.68, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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