How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 2. We made FC Differdange 03 to win 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from US Hostert and 2.5 from FC Differdange 03, so FC Differdange 03 come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FC Differdange 03 to win. FC Differdange 03 shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-2.6), and we make them about 74% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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