How it turned out
We projected about 4.0 goals; the game finished with 6. We made Atert Bissen to win 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from US Rumelange and 2.9 from Atert Bissen, so Atert Bissen come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Atert Bissen to win. Atert Bissen shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-2.9), and we make them about 78% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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