What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from US Rumelange and 1.3 from AS Jeunesse Esch, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: AS Jeunesse Esch to win. AS Jeunesse Esch shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.3), and we make them about 44% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.70, which works out at about 37 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
US Rumelange only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We only make this about 44%, so it's far from a lock.