How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Over 2.5 goals 62%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Charlotte and 1.4 from Chicago Fire, so Charlotte come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Chicago Fire come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.4 goals between the two (xG 2.0-1.4), landing about 64% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Chicago Fire have won three of the last five meetings.
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