New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City prediction

What to expect

We expect about 1.4 goals from New York Red Bulls and 1.5 from St. Louis City, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

New York Red Bulls come into this on four straight wins. St. Louis City come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.0 goals (xG 1.5-1.6), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 74%).

We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.