How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Both teams to score 57%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Charlotte host Houston Dynamo at home in an MLS clash on 5 September 2026. Both clubs sit in the middle of the table, each with a similar record of five wins, two draws and one loss in their last eight games. The points are tight, so a win will push the victor a little higher while a draw keeps the gap small. Charlotte have been the stronger side in the statistical outlook, with an expected 1.5 goals compared with Houston’s 1.1.
Charlotte have come into this game on the back of two straight victories. Their most recent win was a 2-0 away success over Atlanta United, before that they beat DC United 3-1 at home. Earlier they drew 3-3 away at Toronto FC, then beat Columbus Crew 3-1 at home, lost 2-1 away to Chicago Fire and beat New York Red Bulls 2-0 away. In those eight matches they have scored 17 goals, let in nine and kept three clean sheets. At home they have been solid, winning three of their last four games and not losing any. Five of the eight games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them.
Houston Dynamo have also been in good form, with five wins, two draws and one loss in their last eight outings. Their latest result was a 0-0 draw at home against San Jose Earthquakes. Before that they fell 2-1 away to St. Louis City, then earned three consecutive 1-0 or 2-0 victories: 1-0 away at Vancouver Whitecaps, 1-0 at home against Los Angeles Galaxy, 2-0 away at New England Revolution and 2-0 away at Sporting Kansas City. In those eight games they have scored 11 goals, conceded only three and kept six clean sheets, failing to find the net just once. On the road they have won three of their last four matches.
The two clubs have split their recent head-to-head meetings, each winning once with no draws. Those two games produced an average of two goals each. The most recent encounter was a 1-0 win for Houston Dynamo on 30 June 2024. Given the modest goal expectations for both sides and the fact that both have shown the ability to score, this fixture is likely to be a tight affair with chances at both ends rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We pick both teams to score. The price of 1.60 looks short compared with our reading of the game. Both Charlotte and Houston have enough attacking threat to find the net, and the recent numbers suggest a decent chance of goals from either side. The pick has a 57 % chance of working according to our view. It would go wrong if the match turned into a defensive slog with neither side breaking the deadlock, or if one side kept a clean sheet while the other failed to score. Otherwise we expect both sides to get on the scoresheet.
Recent meetings
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