What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Orlando City and 1.9 from San Diego FC, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 3.6 goals (xG 1.7-1.8) and it takes five to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 81%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast.
