What to expect
We expect about 2.5 goals from FC Cincinnati and 1.3 from DC United, so FC Cincinnati come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
DC United come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FC Cincinnati to win. FC Cincinnati are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-1.3), and we make them about 64% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for DC United to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 64%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
