How it turned out
We projected about 4.3 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 64%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Chicago Fire host Inter Miami at home on 10 September in an MLS clash that could decide the shape of the table. The Fire sit fourth in a 15-team league with 39 points from 23 matches and a +11 goal difference. One point separates them from New England Revolution above and Charlotte FC below, so a win would tighten the race at the top. Inter Miami are close behind in the standings and will be looking to close the gap. Both clubs have similar recent goal averages – 2.2 for Chicago and 2.1 for Miami – which suggests an open game with chances at both ends.
The Fire come into this fixture after three consecutive draws. Their last eight games have produced three wins, three draws and two defeats. The most recent results were a 4-4 draw away at Toronto, a 2-2 draw away at Seattle, and a 1-1 draw away to New York Red Bulls. Before that they beat Orlando City 2-1 away, then beat Portland Timbers 2-1 at home and Charlotte 2-1 at home. In those eight matches Chicago have scored 16 and let in 16, and seven of the games featured three or more goals with both sides finding the net in every match.
Miami’s form over the same span shows four wins, two draws and two losses. Their latest outings were a 7-1 demolition of CF Montreal at home, a 2-1 home loss to Toronto FC, a 2-2 away draw with Philadelphia Union and a 4-1 away defeat to Nashville SC. Earlier they drew 2-2 with Columbus Crew at home and won 1-0 away at CF Montreal. On the road they have one win, one draw and one loss in the last three trips. Across those eight games Miami have scored 23 and conceded 17, keeping only one clean sheet. Seven of the matches produced three or more goals and both teams scored in seven of them.
When the two sides have met before, the games have been high-scoring. In the last five meetings Chicago have won once, Miami three times and one match ended level. The average total of those fixtures is 4.2 goals, and the most recent encounter on 23 July saw Miami edge Chicago 3-2. Given the similar recent goal averages and the history of open contests, we expect another match with plenty of chances at both ends.
Our pick is over 2.5 goals. The price is 1.31, which is shorter than what we feel the game deserves. With both teams averaging just over two goals each and a recent record of high-scoring meetings, a goal-rich game looks likely. The price looks good for the risk. It would only go wrong if both defenses tighten dramatically and the match ends with a single goal or a clean-sheet win for either side, which would be a surprise given the trends.
Recent results
Inter Miami have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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